During its May 19, 2025 meeting, the Northwest Local School District Board of Education approved the district’s Five Year Forecast as presented by CFO/Treasurer Amy M. Wells. State law in Ohio requires school districts to submit a Five Year Forecast to the Ohio Department of Education and Workforce twice annually.
Forecast Summary: Stability Today, Challenges Tomorrow
The Five-Year Forecast, built on historical data from previous Fiscal Years (FY22-24) and informed assumptions through FY29, reflects NWLSD’s continued efforts to align spending with educational priorities while managing the realities of inflation, flat-lined revenues, and aging infrastructure.
For FY25, the district projects total revenues and expenditures of approximately $113 million. Revenues are expected to remain relatively stable, supported largely by local property taxes (52 percent) and state aid (27 percent). However, the forecast reveals that expenditures will begin outpacing revenues starting in FY26, resulting in annual operating deficits and depleting cash reserves unless proactive steps are taken. This pattern is often referred to as the “bowtie effect” - when a new levy is passed, revenue temporarily exceeds expenses, but over time, as costs naturally rise and levy amounts stay flat, expenses catch up and eventually outpace the revenue. This cycle means a school district must either reduce spending or seek new revenue every few years to maintain services.
Operational Constraints and Funding Strategy
In 2019, the district entered into a 3 percent partnership with the community, committing to limit annual operational growth to no more than 3 percent to ensure its funding needs remain affordable and sustainable. NWLSD has remained true to this commitment, successfully managing its budget while continuing to provide quality education and services to students and families. As a result, over the past 14 years, Northwest Local School District's operating costs have increased by 20 percent, averaging about 1.5 percent per year.
However, despite $2.6 million in reductions in FY21 and strategic investments from one-time carryover funds, NWLSD faces increasing personnel, utility, and special education costs.
Cash reserves, though currently above the board-mandated 60-day minimum, are projected to decline significantly. The forecast indicates a reduction from 99 days of cash on hand in FY25 to only 56 days by FY29.
Upcoming Decisions
The district’s forecast highlights the impending expiration of two critical emergency levies: a $7.3 million levy in 2027 and an $11.3 million levy in 2029.
Without renewed community support, significant operational reductions would be required, potentially impacting educational services.
Investments and Future Planning
Despite fiscal constraints, NWLSD continues to invest in long-term infrastructure and educational improvements. In FY24, the district allocated $30 million in one-time funds toward a capital maintenance plan and Master Facilities Plan. These initiatives include a new Colerain Elementary School without the need for a bond issue.
Aging buildings, deferred maintenance, and continued growth in special education services present additional financial pressures, reinforcing the importance of ongoing strategic planning and community partnership.
Ongoing Commitment to Transparency and Collaboration
Strong schools rely on strong community partnerships. This forecast allows NWLSD to plan for the future while remaining transparent about needs.
Looking ahead, the District will engage with stakeholders as it aligns resources with instructional priorities and prepares for critical decisions about operating levies, renewals and potential operational adjustments.
The Powerpoint Presentation can be accessed here:
https://nwlocalpublic.ic-board.com/attachments/cf6d994d-198c-42a5-832d-3a1acbb22f01.pdf
The Five Year Forecast:
https://nwlocalpublic.ic-board.com/attachments/edfe1d33-47b4-40a1-aaa1-8d036bddfdf9.pdf
Five Year Forecast Assumptions:
https://nwlocalpublic.ic-board.com/attachments/5689c3a7-52dd-472f-bd07-b6a3b80795b8.pdf
For more details about the Five Year forecast:
The video of the Five Year forecast presentation to the Board is available here: